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When the first phase of polls over, this is what BJP expects as the outcome!!!

Confident of retaining most of its seats in Saurashtra and South Gujarat in the first phase of Gujarat elections held on Saturday, BJP is now looking to make significant gains in North Gujarat, especially Banaskantha that was affected by severe flooding in July.

The north region comprises 32 seats spanning six districts of Gandhinagar, Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Aravalli, Mehsana, and Patan. Congress had won 17 of these seats in 2012 while BJP won 15.

BJP is confident of increasing its share. A party leader pointed out that some of the sitting MLAs of Congress in north Gujarat have already defected to BJP. “Also, the absence of Congress MLAs in Banaskantha during flood work and the work put in by BJP government there — (chief minister) Vijay Rupani camped there for five days and ran administration from there — will help,” the person said on condition of anonymity.

The leader said some of the places were won by Congress with a margin of less than 1,000 votes. The party is also hopeful of a non-Patidar, non-Thakore OBC consolidation.

Also, the 38 seats in the central region will prove crucial for the two parties. Congress has traditionally dominated tribal and rural areas while BJP has had an edge in urban pockets, especially Vadodara city. Sources in the BJP camp said the party was sure of getting more than 60 seats in the first phase when 89 constituencies voted.

“Saurashtra was in some ways a challenge,” a BJP leader said. “But split in Patidar vote and consolidation of other communities has worked in our favor. So the tally of the party cannot go below 60 seats at any cost,” the person said. In 2012, BJP had won 63 of the 89 constituencies while Congress won 22.

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