The country is supposed to hit its peak of 7.87 lakh active cases as early as September 2, according to the ‘most likely’ model, after which the curve may hit a level till September 16, following which the cases are projected to show a steady decrease. The ‘end date’ of the pandemic is projected to be on December 3.
The COVID-19 pandemic is set to hit its peak in India in barely two weeks, according to the latest projections by the Times Fact-India Outbreak Report, a joint effort by Times Network and research and data firm Protiviti.Through most of August India has been recording the highest daily spike in cases anywhere in the world. Overall, India continues to be behind the United States (55.3 lakh total cases) and Brazil (34.6 lakh total cases).
However, India’s death toll is lower than that of both the US and Brazil and as a percentage of the population, it is far lower than most other badly-hit countries.Interestingly, the recent sero surveys conducted in Delhi, Mumbai and Pune have triggered a massive debate over whether some cities in India could already be experiencing partial herd immunity.
Though there is no scientific confirmation on this, some experts believe that the surveys – which check for antibodies in people and indicate whether they have been exposed to COVID-19 – suggest that the slowing down of the curve in some places is linked to immunity group.
While the sero survey in Pune showed that more than 50 per cent of the people surveyed had developed antibodies for COVID-19, the corresponding figure for Delhi’s latest sero survey is 29.1 per cent. This means roughly 58 lakh Delhi residents may have already been exposed to COVID-19.