India is gradually recovering from the devastating heatwaves that ravaged areas of North India a few months ago. According to a new study, the country’s northwestern, central and south-central areas have emerged as new heatwave hotspots. In recent years, India has experienced an upsurge in extreme heatwaves.
As per the report, climate change and the resulting increase in heatwave tendencies would put a greater number of people in danger. It recommended that heat action plans be developed in these three hotspot locations, with a focus on distinct vulnerabilities among the population.
Between 1951 and 2016, researchers looked at monthly, seasonal and decadal fluctuations as well as long-term trends in heatwaves and severe heatwave occurrences during the pre-monsoon (March-May) and early summer monsoon (June-July) seasons.
Heatwaves are linked to increased concerns for human health, agriculture and the natural ecology, said in a study published in the journal International Journal of Climatology. The paper proposes a strategy for assessing climatic performance and uncertainty in extreme weather forecasting in the future.
A heatwave is proclaimed in the plains when the maximum temperature exceeds 40 degrees Celsius and at least 4.5 degrees above average. According to the IMD, a severe heatwave is defined as a temperature difference of more than 6.5 degrees Celsius from normal.
The researchers investigated the changes in geographical and temporal patterns in heatwaves and severe heatwaves over the past seven decades, led by Professor RK Mall of the Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research (MCECCR) at Banaras Hindu University (BHU).
They discovered a change in the pattern of heatwave occurrences, with a rising tendency in three key heatwave-prone regions in northwestern, central, and south-central India, with West Madhya Pradesh having the highest rate. In the Gangetic plains of West Bengal, a substantial declining tendency was noticed over the eastern area.
The Ministry of Science and Technology said in a release, ‘The research also observed an alarming southward expansion and a spatial surge in severe heatwave events in the last few decades that may put a greater population at additional risk of heat stress in a region already characterised by low Diurnal temperature range (DTR), or the difference between the maximum and minimum temperatures within one day, and high humidity.’
Researchers stated that equitable heat resilient mitigation and adaption methods should be developed for each segment of society based on their susceptibility. They emphasised the importance of creating effective heat response strategies in the three hotspot locations.
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The model built to investigate heatwaves may also be used to forecast future occurrences of such deadly trends, according to the researchers, who claim that ‘models LMDZ4 and GFDL-ESM2M are the best-performing ones in simulating heat waves across India.’
The two models have set the groundwork for a future that is heatwave resistant. As per researchers, the rising frequency of these events may pose a serious threat to human health, particularly among the most vulnerable members of society. Heatwaves must be recognised as a potential health risk, which necessitates further research, robust preparedness, and policy intervention.
As the monsoon was delayed earlier this year, parts of Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh suffered one of the biggest temperature increases. A temperature of nearly 43 degrees Celsius was reported in Delhi.
Heatwaves afflicted not only India but the rest of the world as well. Globally, the decade to 2019 was the hottest recorded, and the five hottest years have all occurred within the last five years.
The heatwave was produced by a dome of high pressure over the northwest, which was exacerbated by human-induced climate change, which increased the likelihood and intensity of extreme weather occurrences.
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