After Thursday’s election, Sinn Fein, the erstwhile political wing of the IRA, is on track to become the largest party in Northern Ireland’s government, marking a watershed moment in its campaign for a united Ireland.
An opinion survey released on Tuesday showed that the one-time political outcast had an 8-point lead ahead of the May 5 election for the Northern Ireland Assembly.
It would be a historic shift if an Irish nationalist party won for the first time in the British-run province 24 years after the Good Friday peace treaty ended three decades of sectarian conflict. It also brings Sinn Fein closer to being the government’s most powerful party on both sides of Ireland’s border.
Despite the fact that a referendum on Irish unity with the Republic of Ireland is still years away, Sinn Fein is gaining traction.
‘We are in a decade of opportunity, a decade of chance to bring about that transformation,’ Michelle O’Neill, Sinn Fein’s Northern Ireland leader, told Reuters at the unveiling of the party’s election manifesto, “Time For Real Change.”
‘I’m less concerned with the dates (for a referendum) and more concerned about the planning, the work that needs to be done, and the discourse about constitutional change that needs to be conducted.’
Sinn Fein is led by a newer generation of politicians with fewer ties to the IRA and the ‘Troubles’ in Northern Ireland, which resulted in the deaths of 3,600 people. They urge the Irish government to begin preparing for the potential of a border referendum.
A pre-election poll in north Belfast’s patchwork constituency reveals that breaking away from the United Kingdom is not on voters’ thoughts.
While several buildings fly Irish tricolours and another has a sign stating ‘céad mle fáilte,’ the Irish word welcome, the main worries for Sinn Fein campaigners are the rising cost of living and a failing health sector.
‘Sinn Fein has run quite a nuanced campaign, which is a pitch to the persuadables and middle ground,’ political commentator and former Sinn Fein candidate Chris Donnelly said of the party’s restrained push for a united Ireland on the doorstep.
In the 17-page manifesto, Irish unity takes up only one page.
A similar situation exists in the Republic of Ireland, where an even larger Sinn Fein lead in opinion surveys ahead of national elections in three years does not indicate that Irish unity is a priority.
According to an exit poll, a long-running housing crisis and health-care challenges were the most important issues for 60% of those who voted. The inclusion of Irish unity as one of the ten options in the exit poll was deemed unnecessary by pollsters.
Sinn Fein’s campaign to separate Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom of England, Scotland, and Wales is being used by pro-British parties to rally support.
‘I believe unionists are very frightened about what a Sinn Fein victory would entail in terms of their divisive border poll ideas,’ said Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the largest pro-British party.
The DUP’s support has plummeted in the last 18 months, putting it in danger of losing the post of Northern Ireland’s first minister to Sinn Fein under a system that requires the main nationalist and unionist parties to share power.
At the last election in 2017, unionists won less than half of the seats for the first time, and surveys predict that discontent about post-Brexit checks imposed on Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK will spread that share more evenly among unionist parties this time around.
According to a poll released on Monday, the Alliance Party, a cross-community coalition, has a chance to catch the DUP, which was unthinkable five years ago.
While a majority of Northern Ireland voters decided to remain in the European Union, the obligation to share power with unionist competitors will limit what Sinn Fein can do about it.
Under the rules of the 1998 peace treaty, the British government has sole authority to convene a referendum if they consider a ‘yes’ majority is likely. Polls routinely demonstrate that the majority of voters in Northern Ireland support the status quo.
Nonetheless, observers feel that a victory for Sinn Fein on Thursday might be a watershed moment.
‘It would be important if a party committed to the transfer of sovereignty from the United Kingdom to a United Ireland became the largest representative party,’ political expert Donnelly stated.
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