India’s monsoon onset over the southernmost Kerala coast is delayed by another two-three days

According to weather officials, the onset of India’s monsoon over the southernmost Kerala coast is delayed by another two to three days due to the formation of a cyclonic circulation in the Arabian Sea, which has reduced cloud cover over the Kerala coast. The monsoon plays a crucial role in India’s economy, delivering nearly 70 percent of the country’s required rainfall for agricultural purposes and replenishing reservoirs and aquifers.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had expected the monsoon rains to arrive over the Kerala coast on June 4, marking the latest onset in four years. The presence of a cyclonic circulation over the southeast Arabian Sea has been drawing moisture away from the Kerala coast, causing the delay, as stated by an anonymous senior IMD official.

However, the official also mentioned that the monsoon could arrive within the next two to three days, bringing relief to farmers eagerly anticipating the start of the wet season, which is crucial for summer crops. Approximately half of India’s farmland relies on the annual monsoon rains for irrigation, as it lacks any other water source.

The late start of the monsoon may result in a delay in planting crops such as rice, cotton, corn, soybean, and sugar cane. Another unnamed official expressed optimism that once the monsoon sets over Kerala, it should gain momentum and progress across the entire country on schedule.

The India Meteorological Department has forecast below-average rains for June, with expectations of the monsoon picking up in July, August, and September. However, for the overall four-month season, the IMD predicts an average amount of rainfall despite the potential formation of an El Nino weather phenomenon.

A strong El Nino, characterized by a warming of the Pacific Ocean’s sea surface, can lead to severe droughts in Southeast Asia, India, and Australia, while causing heavy rainfall in other regions such as the US Midwest and Brazil. Previous occurrences of a strong El Nino in 2014 and 2015 resulted in back-to-back droughts in India, pushing some farmers into extreme poverty.