According to the data by Union Health Minister, India reported 26,355 new COVID-19 cases, making it the third straight day that daily infections in the country have remained below 30,000.
Mahindra Agarwal, a professor at IIT Kanpur said, “That is what our mathematical model is predicting. The numbers being predicted by the model right now are in close alignment with what is being reported every day. And, going further, the model shows that the daily detection of new cases should come down to about 20,000 by the end of December.”
Agarwal said, “This is only a mathematical model. It takes in data coming in from various states to predict future pathways based on certain assumptions. As with any other mathematical model, this too has its limitations. For example, it cannot tell us the reason why the decline might be happening. But over the last few months, the predictions of this model have been in remarkable agreement with the ground realities, even during the festival season, or the elections in Bihar, when we would intuitively expect the infections to spread very fast. This gives us the confidence to believe in the trajectory being predicted by the model for the end of this month as well.”
Shahid Jameel, a virologist, director of Trivedi School of Biosciences said, “Even if we believe that the downhill journey is now irreversible, it will take some time before the epidemic is over. The rate of decline is always slower than the rate of ascent. Already, you would notice that we have been spending a much longer time in the 30,000s and 40,000s while coming down than we had spent while going up. And even if we believe that the decline itself is irreversible, there would be small surges on the way, like the one we had towards the end of November.”