The recent exit poll declared that the BJP has a higher chance of winning the Gujarat election 2017. But will Narendra Modi win in the 2019 elections?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains India’s most popular leader with no competition in sight, according to a mega online survey by the Times Group.
Despite the note ban, GST and a no-holds-barred poll campaign in Gujarat, more than three-quarters of respondents, in the survey conducted in nine languages across 10 Times Group media properties, said they will vote for him if Lok Sabha polls were held today.
Similarly, 79% of those surveyed said a Modi-led government is currently the most likely scenario in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The three-part survey was conducted online over 72 hours between December 12 and 15 with over half a million responses.
According to the survey, only 20% said they would vote for Congress president-elect Rahul Gandhi in a head-to-head contest with Modi today.
However, while a significant 58% of those surveyed remain unimpressed with him, 34% respondents said the Gandhi scion has been able to establish a new connection with voters.
But what is worrisome for Congress is that as many as 73% of the respondents said they don’t consider the party an alternative even after Rahul’s elevation.
Does that mean if Rahul were out of the picture, Congress will fare somewhat better? Not really, according to the survey.
While 38% of those polled said they wouldn’t vote for Congress if a non-Gandhi were to be its leader, almost an equal number (37%) said they would vote for the party if another leader from outside the family were to lead it.
While Rahul may or may not be winning the personality contest, the larger-than-life figure of Modi appears to be key for those who are in favor of BJP. Consider this – 31% of those surveyed said they wouldn’t vote for BJP if he weren’t to be its PM candidate. This means that while BJP has retained its core constituency (48% said they would vote for the party even if he was not the leader), PM Modi remains its premium brand and adds a sizeable number to its vote base.
Each response in the survey has been geotagged to city and state. The results were concealed from voters till after voting ended.
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