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Steep rise in Covid curve, Cases double in five days

In a change from its daily routine, the ministry of health today deferred from its usual practice of posting updated Covid statistics early in the morning. The number of confirmed covid-19 cases in India rose by 17 percent in 12 hours to reach 1,251 yesterday evening, the latest data from the ministry of health and family welfare (MoHFW) shows. The number of active cases rose 18 percent over the same period to 1,117.

Yesterday’s spike meant that the case count rose faster in half a day than what it did during the entire 24-hour period preceding this period when the number of cases had risen by 15 percent to 1,071.

India’s trajectory is now flatter when compared to that of the US, which is the new global epicentre of covid-19.But still the curve is steeper than Singapore and Japan, which have managed to flatten their coronavirus curves through a combination of focused surveillance, screening, and the effective use of masks to contain the pandemic.

Given the volatility in India’s daily data over the past few days, it is too early to say whether the current trajectory will sustain, rise, or flatten in the coming days.India’s erratic scheduling of data releases also fails to inspire confidence. It is worth noting that the US had a flatter trajectory compared to China till recently but as testing expanded, cases spiked up, with the US now overtaking China as the country with the most confirmed cases of covid-19.

India’s case count is now roughly double what it was five days ago. At this trajectory, the number of cases could shoot up to 10,000 over the next 16 days, and India’s hospitals could get overwhelmed by the end of May.Kerala leads in terms of the number of active cases with 182 Covid-19 cases, according to the latest health ministry update.This could also be credited to Kerala’s active social volunteering and screening of suspected and potential Covid candidates.Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases. Maharashtra has the second most number of active cases (165), followed by Delhi (79). At 75 active cases, Karnataka has the fourth-highest number of active cases, followed closely by Uttar Pradesh (71).In the north-east, two states have reported Covid-19 cases so far Manipur and Mizoram, with 1 confirmed case each in both states. Other north-eastern states have not reported any case so far. The state of Jharkhand hasn’t reported any confirmed case until now.

Delhi and Tamil Nadu have seen the biggest spikes in active cases over the past 12 hours. The number of active cases rose from 45 to 79 in Delhi and from 45 to 62 in Tamil Nadu. So far, the provisional district wise details are available for 979 confirmed cases nationally. In this list, Mumbai (81 cases) has reported the most number of cases nationally and also leads in the state of Maharashtra. Kasargod district (78 cases) has reported the most number of cases in Kerala. Bengaluru (43 cases) has reported the most cases in Karnataka and Hyderabad district (27 cases) has reported the most cases in Telangana. Gautam Buddh Nagar district (22 cases) has reported the most number of cases in Uttar Pradesh.

In India, there have been 32 deaths so far but this could change in the coming weeks. Testing criteria in India have been stringent so far and are gradually being relaxed even as new labs begin testing.

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