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BJP likely to win in UP, 3 states; hung house in Punjab: Opinion poll on next year’s elections

The BJP is expected to maintain power in four of the five states that will vote early next year, setting the stage for the Lok Sabha elections in 2024. According to the first round of the ABP-CVoter survey, the BJP is expected to win comfortably in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, and Manipur, while Punjab is expected to have a hung legislature due to a tight race between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party.

With the assembly elections less than six months away, the survey suggests that the AAP might hit the Congress’ chances in most states, particularly Punjab, which is one of the few states where the Grand Old Party still holds power.

Uttar Pradesh

According to the survey, the BJP-led NDA would win an easy victory in the strategically vital state, which has 403 assembly seats and plays a key role in determining the fate of parties vying for federal leadership in Delhi.

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According to the poll’s predictions, the BJP would win somewhere between 259 and 267 seats, ensuring a comfortable majority. While the saffron party’s seat share is expected to fall compared to the 2017 assembly elections, its vote share is expected to grow by 0.4%.

The survey states that the SP will win 119-127 seats, the BSP 12-16 seats and the Congress only 3-7 seats. The forecast indicates that the Grand Old Party, which has been mired in poll failures since 2014, will not be spared.

As per some political analysts, breaking the BJP juggernaut in the state will need a grand alliance of opposition parties. The SP and Congress, on the other hand, have ruled out forming an alliance with major parties, preferring to focus on minor parties in the state. Mayawati, on the other hand, has declared that her party would run alone in the elections.


The impasse between Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh and Punjab Congress chief Navjot Singh Sidhu is anticipated to have a significant negative impact on the party’s chances in the state. According to the survey, the Aam Aadmi Party will profit the most from the debacle and may win anywhere between 51 and 57 seats, while the Grand Old Party’s seat count could drop to about 38-46.

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21.6 percent of those polled indicated they want Kejriwal to be the next Punjab chief minister. Sukhbir Badal is in second place with 18.8%, followed by Captain Amarinder Singh with 17.9%, AAP MP Bhagwant Mann with 16.1% and state Congress head Navjot Singh Sidhu with 15.3%.


The BJP is projected to retain control in the mountainous state, with 44-48 seats anticipated. As per the forecast, the state’s unusual leadership transition, criticism of the government’s handling of the COVID crisis and a dispute over hosting the Kumbh Mela during the pandemic will have little influence on the saffron party chances. The Congress is predicted to win 19-23 of the 70 seats up for grabs, while the AAP is anticipated to win approximately 2 seats.

In the 2017 assembly elections, the BJP came out on top, winning 57 of the 70 seats on offer, while the Congress came in second with only 11 seats. The Congress is predicted to win 19-23 of the 70 seats up for grabs, while the AAP is anticipated to win approximately 2 seats.


The BJP is expected to retain control in this state as too, with a survey predicting 22-26 seats for the saffron party in the 40-seat legislature. Following that will come to the AAP, which is expected to gain 4-8 seats, leaving the Congress with only 3-7 seats. According to the survey, the AAP may garner 22.2 % of the vote, compared to 15.4% for Congress.


The ABP-CVoter survey also shows that the BJP is also projected to win 32-36 seats in the northeastern state. The Congress, which is likely to gain 18-22 seats, will remain the main opposition party. The Naga People’s Front will struggle to maintain its position, as one opinion survey forecasts that it will only gain 2-6 seats.


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