New Delhi: A Reuters poll of economists found that consumer inflation in India likely eased to a near six-year low in April. The May 5-8 Reuters poll of 43 economists suggested inflation as measured by the annual change in the consumer price index (CPI) fell to 3.27 per cent in April from 3.34 per cent in March. Forecasts for the inflation data, set to be released on May 12 at 1030 GMT, ranged from 2.8 per cent to 4.0 per cent.
Survey medians suggested prices rose at the slowest pace since mid-2019 last month. ‘The slight decline we will see is because food inflation continues to ease on a month-on-month basis. Vegetable prices, pulses, cereals … even fruits declined. The fact is we are in April, and you’re entering the summer months. The expectation is seasonally you should see a pick-up in vegetable prices, but for now we’re not seeing that ,’ Gaura Sengupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank, said.
A separate Reuters poll conducted last month suggested inflation would average 4.0 per cent this fiscal year, in line with the RBI’s projection. Meanwhile, the price of gold – a prized commodity in India – rose around 5.0 per cent in April.
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Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy and is a better gauge of domestic demand, was expected to have moderated to 4.0 per cent year-on-year in April, down from the 4.1 per cent estimated by economists in a April survey,.
Wholesale price index-based inflation is expected to have eased to 1.76 per cent last month, down from 2.05 per cent in March, the survey also showed.