The predictions of early monsoon in Kerala was put to rest by the Indian Meteorological Department on Monday, when the IMD officials said that IMD officials said that southwest monsoon had advanced into some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, Nicobar Islands, entire south Andaman Sea and parts of north Andaman Sea on May 14th did not progress much on Monday.
Scientists believe it is due to the persisting anticyclone over the Arabian Sea.
A K Sahai, climate research and services, IMD, Pune, said that an anticyclone in the lower levels over the Arabian Sea was hindering the further advancement of monsoon towards the west coast and Kerala.
“Extended range forecasts show that the anti-cyclone is expected to dissipate by May-end, leading to strengthening of the westerlies. This will translate in to a normal monsoon onset date over Kerala,” said Sahai.
Monsoon normally reaches Kerala on June 1. A late or early onset by a day or two is considered normal.
On how monsoon is expected to fare this year, Sahai said with models showing weakening of El Nino conditions and strengthening of IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) conditions during monsoon 2017, hopes for rains close to 100% of the 50-year average are becoming more plausible.