We are currently far from defeating climate change, with a recent report suggesting that the world is dangerously close to surpassing a critical warming threshold, raising concerns among scientists. According to the report, during one-third of 2023, the average global temperature remained at least 1.5ºC higher than pre-industrial levels.
Staying below this 1.5ºC threshold in the long term is essential to mitigate the devastating impacts of climate change. However, 2023 is already poised to become the hottest year on record, and there are concerns that 2024 could be even hotter.
These findings are based on an analysis by the BBC on climate change and come on the heels of record-high temperatures in September and a summer marked by extreme weather events worldwide.
So, where do we stand concerning the global warming threshold? In December 2015, world leaders gathered in Paris and signed the Paris Agreement, committing to limit the long-term rise in global temperatures this century to below 2ºC and striving to keep it under 1.5ºC. These limits refer to the temperature difference between current global averages and those of the pre-industrial era, specifically between 1850 and 1900, before the widespread use of fossil fuels.
Breaching the Paris threshold doesn’t mean surpassing it for a day or a week but consistently exceeding it over a 20-30 day-year average. Currently, the long-term average warming is approximately 1.1ºC to 1.2ºC.
However, the more frequently we breach the 1.5ºC threshold on individual days, the closer we come to breaking it over the long term. The first time this threshold was breached was for a few days in December 2015, and since then, it has been repeatedly exceeded, typically for brief periods.
According to recent BBC analysis, we are approaching a critical point where the global long-term warming limit could be breached soon. Data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service reveals that, as of October 2, approximately 86 days in 2023 have experienced temperatures over 1.5ºC higher than the pre-industrial average, surpassing the 2016 record well before the year’s end.
Temperature differences exceeding 1.5ºC continued into September, with some days exceeding 1.8ºC above the pre-industrial average. The entire month was 1.75ºC above the pre-industrial level, and the year-to-date average is around 1.4ºC above the 1850-1900 average, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
While 2023 is “on track” to become the warmest year on record, it is not expected to breach the 1.5ºC warming threshold as a global average across the full 12 months. Nonetheless, these trends highlight the urgency of addressing climate change and taking substantial actions to curb further warming.
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