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Gujarat poll 2017 opinion Survey: Is it not that positive for BJP this time?

The upcoming Gujarat elections are a tug of war between the parties BJP and the Congress. Here is the reason why.

The BJP and Congress appear to be poised for a neck-to-neck finish in the upcoming Gujarat elections, the last round of the ABP-CSDS polls have found.

The third round of the pre-election tracker poll was conducted in the last week of November, among 3,655 voters in 50 constituencies, concluding that the rivals would engage in a tight contest with both poling 43 percent votes each.

This indicates a 4 point decrease for BJP and a 2 point increase for Congress from the second round of the pre-election survey, which was held at the end of October.

The drastic change in votes polled by Congress indicates a massive turnaround, particularly in comparison to the party’s votes from the first round held in early August, where it had polled a mere 29 percent of the votes, trailing by 30 whole points behind BJP.

Region-Wise Distribution

Congress has lost by 3 points in the Saurashtra region when compared to the October poll. However, it has gained Central and South Gujarat seats by a considerable number. Meanwhile, BJP has maintained a lead in the Saurashtra and North Gujarat regions, while the baton seems to be fast slipping from their grasp in Central and South Gujarat.

Caste-Based Votes

The upper castes in Gujarat remain firmly rooted with BJP, although the margin appears to be decreasing with time. The Patels, who were earlier in BJP’s camp, have shifted to Congress with a negligible margin of votes. The Koli vote bank, which had briefly deviated to Congress, is back with BJP.

The biggest shift in camps is that of the Adivasis, who have shifted by a huge margin from BJP to Congress. The Muslims and Dalits meanwhile have remained in the Congress camp all along, with a marginal shift in the votes. Overall, Congress has now gained the votes of five communities, as opposed to BJP’s three.

Who Will the Traders Vote For?

A big chunk of the Gujarati voters is from the trader community. The introduction of the GST seems to have benefitted Congress, who have gained big favors with the community, or so the tracker indicates.

While the previous survey in October showed BJP leading Congress by 4 points, the final round has shown a reversal with Congress polling 43 percent against BJP’s 40 percent.

Should BJP Get Another Chance?

The anti-incumbency factor seems to grow stronger as the polls near. The reigning sentiment at the beginning of August i.e. was a strong 50 percent in favor of the incumbent Vijay Rupani government. However, as the months progressed, the anti-incumbency factor seems to have gained a foothold, with the latest round showing a mere 35 percent in favor of the government.

Meanwhile, 39 percent do not want the BJP government to come back into power.

Satisfaction With the Vijay Rupani Government

Taking off from the anti-incumbency factor, 45 percent of the voting Gujaratis do not want the Vijay Rupani government to come back into power. This number is a sharp increase from August’s 27 percent.

On the same note, the current government’s appeal has reduced by 16 points since the first round of the polls.

Favoured Leaders

Where Narendra Modi’s appeal has decreased over the months, Rahul Gandhi has garnered more trust among Gujarat’s voters, the ABP-CSDS poll indicates.
As far as local youth leaders Hardik Patel and Jignesh Mevani are concerned, both have sustained the popularity they gained since October-end. This comes in the backdrop of Patel’s allegedly ‘scandalous CD’ and Mevani’s announcement to contest the elections as an independent.

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