The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) have jointly predicted that the upcoming winter season will be marked by above-average temperatures, owing to the ongoing El Niño phenomenon. Furthermore, El Niño is anticipated to have a substantial impact, leading to a generous monsoon in the following year, with its influence likely extending until April 2024.
El Niño, also known as the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is a naturally occurring climatic event closely associated with reduced rainfall during the southwest monsoon in India. This phenomenon is expected to raise temperatures both on land and in the oceans. In contrast to this year’s subpar monsoon, Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the Director-General of Meteorology at IMD, has expressed optimism that the monsoon in 2024 will return to normal or even above-normal levels. In the current year, India experienced only around 94% of its usual average rainfall, which was further compounded by irregular precipitation patterns affecting agricultural activities.
El Niño is characterized by the warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly in the vicinity of Peru, South America. However, it has become evident that human-induced climate change has led to increased El Niño occurrences. During May to September of this year, sea surface temperatures fluctuated between 0.5°C and 1.5°C due to El Niño. This phenomenon typically recurs every two to seven years, with a duration of nine to 12 months, and it is often associated with poor monsoons in India and drought conditions in Australia.
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