As discussions about demographic challenges unfold globally, recent research has shed light on India potentially facing a similar crisis if prompt actions are not taken. A comprehensive study published in The Lancet journal last week revealed a significant decline in India’s fertility rate, plummeting from 6.2 in 1950 to just under 2 in 2021. More concerning is the forecast that this rate will further decrease to 1.29 by 2050 and a startling 1.04 by 2100.
It’s crucial to note that a fertility rate of 2.1 is generally regarded as the replacement level. With life expectancy on the rise and fertility rates declining, India could confront a profound demographic challenge akin to what Japan and China are grappling with.
The implications for India are multifaceted. A rapidly aging population poses intricate challenges, forcing the government to allocate more resources towards healthcare and social security amidst a diminishing working-age population essential for driving economic growth. Furthermore, this trend exacerbates wealth disparities within society, potentially intensifying preferences for male offspring over females and exacerbating the demographic imbalance.
Experts emphasize the urgency for India to take decisive action. Poonam Muttreja, head of the Population Foundation of India, stressed the importance of a proactive approach to address future challenges. She emphasized the need for comprehensive economic policies stimulating growth and job creation, alongside reforms in social security and pensions, to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of declining fertility rates.
If India fails to navigate these challenges effectively, it risks falling into the middle-income trap, where economic growth stagnates before reaching high-income status. Despite being a relatively youthful nation with a median age slightly over 30, India’s population continues to expand steadily, with projections indicating a rise to over 1.6 billion by 2050, as per the United Nations estimates.
Post Your Comments